Clouds and Irradiance - A Simple Model

Simulating the performance of a solar energy system requires a model for solar irradiance.  Solar irradiance is a function of Sun-Earth geometry and atmospheric conditions of which cloud cover is the most significant.  On a typical summer day in the south of England  there will be a few or scattered cumulus clouds which might reduce the global horizontal irradiance to 80% of its clear sky level, whilst in winter a thick layer of stratus can reduce this to 10 - 20%.

As with everything else on this blog, this is unreviewed work-in-progress and should be treated with caution.  This is post is a simplified description of a project, it is planned to compile a more detailed account of the work at a later date.

The basis of the model is the attenuation of clear sky irradiance caused by the presence of clouds, this is described by a variable called the clear sky factor (CSF) which is defined as:

The graph below was compiled from data collected around noon in June 2011 illustrates the variation in CSF with cloud cover.  for the clear sky it constant at 1.00, for overcast conditions it is more or less constant at approximately 0.15.  On a day of scattered cumulus cloud the CSF fluctuated widely, the low levels recorded when the cloud passed between the measuring device and the sun, the CSF was close to that of the overcast sky, during the period of transition between cloud and clear sky, the CSF exceeded 1.0 due to an increase in diffuse irradiance, this might be called the cloud fringe effect. 

For air mass values in the range 1.2 to 6.0, CSF appears to be more or less independent of air mass which is allows a model of solar irradiance to be based simply on an estimate of clear sky irradiance and a description of the cloud cover.

GHI was chosen as a measure of irradiance because it is the most commonly collected form of irradiance data.  A basic measuring device is simply a small horizontally mounted PV cell.  Clear sky irradiance is influenced by factors such a aerosols and water vapour, whilst there are some excellent models which take these into account, for most locations little is known about the state of the atmosphere at a specific time, especially when clouds are present in the sky.  After some experimentation, a correlation developed by the Meinells which requires only air mass as an input was found to produce a reasonable estimate of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI).  GHI is a combination of direct normal irradiance and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI), as no equivalent formula to the Meinell one could be found for diffuse irradiance, one was derived from local observations using a simple shaded radiometer, this latter formula is subject to revision as more data becomes available.

In the south of England, the "economic" range of air mass is approximately 1.2 to 6.0, for these values the plane parallel formula for Air Mass produces a workable estimate and offers some computational convenience.  This simplification may not be appropriate for regions such as Arizona where there is significant DNI at much higher values of air mass.

The formulas used for the estimated clear sky GHI are:

The most readily available source of cloud cover, apart from looking upwards to the sky, is the METAR reports used in aviation.  These include a description of the sky, if one or more layers of cloud are present, there will be a description of its base height and extent, e.g. SCT040 means scattered cloud at 4,000 feet.  A basic description of the extents is is shown below:

• FEW - up to 2 octas
• SCaTtered - 3 - 4 octas
• BroKeN - 5 - 7 octas
• OVerCast - 8 octas, no blue sky visible

The widespread use of these description made them a logical choice for use as the basis of a model.

One way of creating a model it use distributions of CSF for a given cloud extent.  The graphs below are summaries of the effect of low cloud (less than 6,000 feet) in a maritime temperate climate, also known as Sussex of Cfb in the Koppen system of climate classification.  The distributions for few, scattered and broken cloud are typically bimodal.  the low mode describes the CSF when the sun is obscured by cloud and the high mode is the interval of clear sky between the passage of clouds.

When there are only a few clouds in the sky, the average value of CSF is around 0.8 and there is a greater probability of high values of CSF (i.e. the overall attenuation is small).

As the extent of the cloud increases, the average value of CSF falls for scattered clouds and the probability of CSF being either high or low is approximately equal.  This is consistent with the definition of scattered cloud which is that up to half the sky contains cloud.

 Part of the definition of broken cloud is that there is at least some blue sky visible even though most of the sky is full of cloud, this is reflected in the summary graph.

There is no blue sky visible under an overcast sky and the distribution is unimodal and the mean is low.

These summaries are over  simplifications designed to allow a simple model.  Other factors which are important are the height of the equivalent summaries  cloud, high cloud are significantly different and the values of CSF much greater.  The model as currently configured, simply takes the highest, and most dense layer, which effectively assumes a simple sky, often the sky is complex, especially during the passage of fronts.  Part of the work in progress is to determine the variation in attenuation between climates, for example the nature of solar irradiance in the desert regions of Arizona, are significantly different from those on the south coast of England.