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Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Doris - A thought experiment in progress (12) - And your point is?

Doris is a thought experiment running on a Raspberry Pi and a laptop which is intended to explore sustainable energy, an evolving description and discussion can by found in a previous posts starting with:
It is becoming generally accepted that energy storage can increase the proportion of energy generated from sustainable sources.  Regardless of my efforts with Doris, the aspiration supports international conferences and significant investments in technology are being made.  The concept is not futuristic, products such as Tesla's Power-Wall are coming to market and the internet-of-things which can provide data and control functions is evolving.  The question is where does it fit into the energy economy.  I'm an enthusiast for LED lighting, it works, I get payback (albeit on a small investment) and as we replace CFLs, our energy consumption is slowly falling.  For me as an energy consumer, the economics of storage don't work at present.

This is a well worn quote from the CEO of a cosmetics company; "In the factory we make chemicals and in the shop we sell dreams".  Similarly, we don't buy energy, we buy what it facilitates, e.g. lighting, cooking, entertainment etc.  Putting storage into the system does not cause us to use less energy, just gives us the option of increasing the diversity of sources.  Most consumers don't want a hike in their bills, but many might except higher unit costs if the total bill remained unchanged, thus a prerequisite to the adoption of storage might be energy management and efficiency which creates a cash flow for investment in storage.

At an industry level, the sustainable energy generation capacity is increasing, largely due to offshore wind farms.  However, wind farms are underpinned by conventional generating capacity.  The graph shows a breakdown of the sources of electricity on a pair of Saturday afternoons in October, one was a windy day and the other a calm one:

On the calm day, the gas and coal take over from the wind. This is a reasonably simple investment situation based on producing a product and selling it.  Having read the accounts of some generating companies, the owners of some gas fueled plant view  wind as a competitor and a complicating factor in their economics.  From a sustainability perspective (using number picked from thin air) it better to have four gas fueled plants and two wind farm rather than five gas fueled ones and one wind farm.  Storage helps achieve this.  However, the process of investing in storage rather than generating capacity is a complex one.

In the post war period until the 1990s electricity generation was managed by the CEGB.  In recent years the ownership of generating capacity has become highly diverse.  Participants include banks (possibly because of their deep understanding of markets), privatized power stations and interestingly Scandinavian companies with experience of offshore oil and gas operations have taken a position in the UK offshore wind sector. Would a larger element of central planning give a better outcome for emissions and sustainability?



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